Unemployment in Egypt

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A Multilevel Analysis of the Unemployment in Egypt

A new working paper, developed with Eleonora Bertoni (Unito). Comments are welcome.

Abstract

Despite its recent economic development, Egypt employment inequalities among gender and between different age cohorts are still an unresolved issue. In this work we apply a Multilevel Generalized Linear Mixed Model to the Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey 2006 (ELMPS 2006) and 2012 (ELMPS 2012). By exploiting the hierarchical structure of the survey data, we investigate how the interplay between individual characteristics and regional context conditions Egyptians' individual probability of being unemployed. Moreover, we attempt to check if and how these same characteristics have changed between 2006 and 2012, that is, before and after the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2011 Revolution of the Arab world.

 

It can be downloaded here.

 

New Publication

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Complexity with Heterogeneous Fundamentalists and a Multiplicative Price Mechanism

Abstract

In contrast with the canonical models of financial markets with heterogeneous agents,, Naimzada and Ricchiuti, (2008, 2009) show that the interaction of groups of agents who have the same trading rule but present different beliefs about the fundamental value could be a source of instability. In this paper, differently from, Naimzada and Ricchiuti, (2008, 2009), we assume that the market maker employs a so-called multiplicative price mechanism (Tuinstra, 2002; Zhu et al., 2009). We show that the occurrence of heterogeneity has an ambiguous role: it may either stabilize or destabilize the market.

The article has been published on Economic Notes, and can be downloaded here

(the preliminary WP can be downloaded here)

 

Something New

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Heterogeneous Fundamentalists and Market Maker Inventories (with A. Carraro)  (click here)

In this paper we develop an heterogenous agents model of asset price and inventory with a market maker who considers the excess demand of two groups of agents that employ the same trading rule (i.e. fundamentalists) with different beliefs on the fundamental value. The dynamics of our model is driven by a bi-dimensional discrete non-linear map. We show that the market maker has a destabilizing role when she actively manages the inventory. Moreover, inventory share and the distance between agents' beliefs strongly influence the results: market instability and periodic, or even, chaotic price fluctuations can be generated. Finally, we show through simulations that endogenous fluctuations of the fractions of agents may trigger to instability for a larger set of the parameters.

 

A Dynamic Exchange Rate Model with Heterogeneous Agents (with M. Gori) (click here)

In this paper, we analyze a heterogeneous agent model in which the fundamental exchange rate is endogenously determined by the real markets. The exchange rate market and the real markets are linked through the balance of payments. We have analytically found that there exists at least a steady state in which the exchange rate is at its fundamental value and incomes of both countries are equal to the autonomous components times the over-simplified multiplier (as in the Income-Expenditure model). That steady state can be unique and always unstable when all agents act as contrarians, while when agents act as fundamentalists is unique but its stability depends on the reactivity of actors of the market. Finally, we show that the (in)stability of the economic system depends on both the reactivity of the markets and that of different type of agents involved.

 

Sulle Possibili Strategie di Uscita dalla Crisi

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Appena uscito come Working Paper del DISEI il mio nuovo lavoro (divulgativo):

Sulle Possibili Strategie di Uscita dalla Crisi

Abstract

La struttura dell’Euro sembra essere una delle giustificazioni del prolungamento della crisi europea. In questo scritto, riprendiamo e discutiamo quattro differenti modi di uscita dalla crisi proposti in letteratura su riviste e giornali in questi ultimi anni. Proviamo a porre l’accento sia sui costi economici che su quelli politici e, soprattutto, li leghiamo al tempo che deve intercorrere affinché possano essere realizzati.

[Pubblicato su Jura Gentium, vol X, 2013: 2]

Buona Lettura

 

Heterogeneity in managerial strategies and internationalization of firms: the case of Italy

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E' uscito nella rivista Economia e Politica Industriale, l'articolo:

Heterogeneity in managerial strategies and internationalization of firms: the case of Italy (con G. Giovannetti e M. Velucchi)


Abstract:

The recent empirical literature on firm performance has highlighted the multidimensional concept of managerial strategies. The paper analyzes the nexus between these strategies and performance based on specific entrepreneurs’ characteristics, corporate strategies, organizational capabilities and firms’ approaches to internationalization. Using a dataset obtained by matching and merging Capitalia, ICE-Reprint and AIDA surveys we investigate the possible non-linear impact of managerial strategies on firm performance in Italy. While the specific entrepreneurs’ characteristics do not seem to have a significant impact on firm performance, the mode of internationalization plays an important role. Important non-linearities arise when we singled out the role of skilled workers and managers in determining a firm’s success in highly competitive markets.

 

Green Consumers and Responsible Firms!

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It is now forthcoming the paper:

Doni N. and Ricchiuti G. (2013) 'Market Equilibrium in the Presence of Green Consumers and Responsible Firms: a Comparative Statics Analysis', Resource and Energy Economics, vol. 35 issue 3 pp 380-395 (preliminary version WP07/2011, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Università di Firenze)

Buona Lettura!

GR

 


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