The Survival of Tuscan Firms

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At the end a very old work in progress has become a WP.  And unfortunately, it is not finished yet!

The Survival of Tuscan Firms (co-authored with Filippo Randelli)

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the survival probability of firms in Tuscany (Italy) in the first decade of the 21st century. Using the Official Register of Firms, held by Unioncamere Toscany, we build a panel for the period 1998-2010. Taking into account both individual and context variables, we find that a higher institutional complexity and a lower population density have a positive and significant effect on probability to survive. Moreover, both MAR and Jacob externalities have a nonlinear effect on the probability to survive: it must be reached a minimum level so that the negative effects of competition are more than offset by the positive effects of networking.

 

You can downloaded it here!


 

Social Capital and Firm's Productivity in Italy

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A new working paper:

Social Capital and Firm's Productivity in Italy: a Multilevel Approach

Abstract

Matching and merging different databases, we study how firm’s productivity is affected by individual characteristics and provincial context conditions in Italy.  Mainly, we focus on the relation between social capital, in its different forms and dimensions and calculated at provincial level and firms’ productivity, calculated using the non-parametric DEA approach. We find that exporting, self-financing firms, and firms belonging to groups, are more productive. In particular, Cooperative firms are more productive than limited company. Moreover,  the variables capturing the social capital show strong positive correlation with firms’ productivity, indicating that a  widespread civism intended as pro-social behavior independent of specific interpersonal bounds, seems to create an economic environment which is more favorable to entrepreneurship and collaboration among firms, since it increases interpersonal trust, lowers transaction costs, enhances the compliance of formal or informal rules of fairness and fosters a more transparent, impartial and efficient working of the public administration.

It can be downloaded here

 

Unemployment in Egypt

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A Multilevel Analysis of the Unemployment in Egypt

A new working paper, developed with Eleonora Bertoni (Unito). Comments are welcome.

Abstract

Despite its recent economic development, Egypt employment inequalities among gender and between different age cohorts are still an unresolved issue. In this work we apply a Multilevel Generalized Linear Mixed Model to the Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey 2006 (ELMPS 2006) and 2012 (ELMPS 2012). By exploiting the hierarchical structure of the survey data, we investigate how the interplay between individual characteristics and regional context conditions Egyptians' individual probability of being unemployed. Moreover, we attempt to check if and how these same characteristics have changed between 2006 and 2012, that is, before and after the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2011 Revolution of the Arab world.

 

It can be downloaded here.

 

New Publication

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Complexity with Heterogeneous Fundamentalists and a Multiplicative Price Mechanism

Abstract

In contrast with the canonical models of financial markets with heterogeneous agents,, Naimzada and Ricchiuti, (2008, 2009) show that the interaction of groups of agents who have the same trading rule but present different beliefs about the fundamental value could be a source of instability. In this paper, differently from, Naimzada and Ricchiuti, (2008, 2009), we assume that the market maker employs a so-called multiplicative price mechanism (Tuinstra, 2002; Zhu et al., 2009). We show that the occurrence of heterogeneity has an ambiguous role: it may either stabilize or destabilize the market.

The article has been published on Economic Notes, and can be downloaded here

(the preliminary WP can be downloaded here)

 

Something New

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Heterogeneous Fundamentalists and Market Maker Inventories (with A. Carraro)  (click here)

In this paper we develop an heterogenous agents model of asset price and inventory with a market maker who considers the excess demand of two groups of agents that employ the same trading rule (i.e. fundamentalists) with different beliefs on the fundamental value. The dynamics of our model is driven by a bi-dimensional discrete non-linear map. We show that the market maker has a destabilizing role when she actively manages the inventory. Moreover, inventory share and the distance between agents' beliefs strongly influence the results: market instability and periodic, or even, chaotic price fluctuations can be generated. Finally, we show through simulations that endogenous fluctuations of the fractions of agents may trigger to instability for a larger set of the parameters.

 

A Dynamic Exchange Rate Model with Heterogeneous Agents (with M. Gori) (click here)

In this paper, we analyze a heterogeneous agent model in which the fundamental exchange rate is endogenously determined by the real markets. The exchange rate market and the real markets are linked through the balance of payments. We have analytically found that there exists at least a steady state in which the exchange rate is at its fundamental value and incomes of both countries are equal to the autonomous components times the over-simplified multiplier (as in the Income-Expenditure model). That steady state can be unique and always unstable when all agents act as contrarians, while when agents act as fundamentalists is unique but its stability depends on the reactivity of actors of the market. Finally, we show that the (in)stability of the economic system depends on both the reactivity of the markets and that of different type of agents involved.

 

Sulle Possibili Strategie di Uscita dalla Crisi

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Appena uscito come Working Paper del DISEI il mio nuovo lavoro (divulgativo):

Sulle Possibili Strategie di Uscita dalla Crisi

Abstract

La struttura dell’Euro sembra essere una delle giustificazioni del prolungamento della crisi europea. In questo scritto, riprendiamo e discutiamo quattro differenti modi di uscita dalla crisi proposti in letteratura su riviste e giornali in questi ultimi anni. Proviamo a porre l’accento sia sui costi economici che su quelli politici e, soprattutto, li leghiamo al tempo che deve intercorrere affinché possano essere realizzati.

[Pubblicato su Jura Gentium, vol X, 2013: 2]

Buona Lettura

 


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